* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 35 32 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 15 17 14 21 24 33 32 31 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 9 2 9 356 323 284 275 255 240 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.3 23.4 22.9 22.2 21.2 20.4 20.0 19.8 19.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 111 105 96 91 85 73 63 57 56 57 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 55 52 50 46 44 40 34 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 20 20 18 16 13 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 74 63 59 46 17 1 -17 -11 0 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 1 -18 -7 11 2 -4 -13 -11 -5 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -1 2 0 9 7 2 -5 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 556 576 610 589 565 518 502 477 417 385 380 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.4 24.2 26.4 28.7 30.2 30.9 31.1 31.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.1 117.8 118.4 119.0 120.0 120.9 121.4 121.4 121.1 120.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 12 10 6 2 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -14. -19. -20. -22. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -10. -17. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -24. -25. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -21. -32. -46. -60. -72. -83. -90. -93. -95. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##