* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 18 17 14 12 10 7 6 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 3 1 0 0 -3 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 206 209 210 207 211 205 242 245 260 257 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 106 107 107 107 107 105 104 102 102 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 36 35 33 32 31 28 25 25 22 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 36 38 40 35 33 14 -2 -16 -36 -44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -21 -21 -7 -2 -9 -6 -27 -9 0 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 1 3 2 2 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1841 1825 1810 1815 1821 1851 1872 1873 1848 1786 1686 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.2 20.0 19.9 19.8 20.0 20.3 21.0 21.9 22.6 23.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.2 137.4 137.5 137.5 137.4 137.1 136.9 136.9 137.2 137.9 139.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -32. -38. -40. -42. -44. -44. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##