* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/18/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 64 71 75 78 81 82 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 64 71 75 78 81 82 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 43 54 64 73 81 88 93 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 8 9 14 18 18 22 15 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -3 -8 -6 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 118 92 57 59 51 46 21 41 41 35 27 8 4 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 158 158 156 153 152 153 154 156 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 81 83 85 82 81 81 80 80 80 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 16 11 8 23 22 13 0 6 11 10 9 200 MB DIV 91 96 98 108 118 121 137 112 80 68 89 78 84 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1138 1157 1177 1183 1192 1224 1264 1302 1331 1374 1391 1365 1298 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.2 105.8 106.6 107.3 108.9 110.4 112.0 113.2 114.1 114.8 115.3 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 41 46 54 55 50 54 52 40 34 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 27. 39. 46. 50. 53. 56. 58. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##