* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 27 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 15 19 26 33 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 -1 0 0 2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 1 355 326 307 277 266 253 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.4 22.9 22.3 21.9 20.8 19.7 19.2 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 96 92 86 82 70 59 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 50 48 50 48 49 43 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 15 14 11 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 46 32 24 16 9 0 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -1 11 11 12 1 0 -11 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -2 4 4 3 9 0 0 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 596 560 521 471 464 449 372 287 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.6 24.4 25.7 26.9 29.1 31.0 31.8 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.2 118.6 119.1 119.6 120.5 120.6 120.4 120.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 13 12 11 7 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -16. -15. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -15. -22. -27. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -16. -20. -20. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -33. -46. -58. -72. -78. -84. -87. -89. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##