* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 28 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 21 25 32 35 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 351 329 303 285 262 253 238 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.8 22.3 21.9 21.3 20.2 19.5 19.3 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 90 86 82 75 62 58 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 47 44 47 46 44 39 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 13 12 11 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 26 29 20 25 4 20 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 9 5 9 2 -10 0 -14 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 2 3 2 5 1 -4 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 552 512 489 472 458 403 343 305 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.8 28.1 30.3 31.4 31.7 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.7 119.2 119.7 120.1 120.6 120.8 120.6 120.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 12 9 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -17. -20. -19. -18. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -9. -18. -26. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -17. -19. -18. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -34. -49. -63. -76. -84. -90. -94. -98. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##