* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 41 51 60 66 69 72 78 81 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 41 51 60 66 69 72 78 81 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 53 60 69 80 91 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 14 14 12 12 19 19 17 12 7 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 -2 -6 -2 -6 -3 -5 -5 -7 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 20 27 44 54 56 27 30 40 35 31 29 358 22 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 157 158 158 156 154 154 155 155 155 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 81 83 84 84 82 81 80 78 79 78 78 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 14 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 25 20 16 18 24 23 14 2 5 14 25 36 49 200 MB DIV 116 134 119 110 107 113 80 86 36 53 56 51 58 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1150 1145 1146 1153 1162 1195 1229 1272 1322 1325 1333 1327 1307 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.4 10.0 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.7 107.4 108.2 109.0 110.5 112.1 113.4 114.5 115.3 116.1 116.7 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 44 46 49 51 53 55 41 32 32 35 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 16. 26. 35. 41. 44. 47. 53. 56. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##