* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 37 44 53 64 70 75 79 83 88 88 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 37 44 53 64 70 75 79 83 88 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 60 71 84 95 104 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 13 11 15 15 15 15 10 6 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -5 -4 -5 -4 -3 -5 -5 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 67 55 62 66 70 41 48 41 42 47 52 58 68 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 158 158 158 156 157 157 156 155 155 153 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 81 83 82 81 79 77 76 76 75 71 73 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 12 14 15 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 11 13 13 11 4 0 12 22 42 47 52 200 MB DIV 124 108 106 100 107 82 94 50 63 21 39 42 55 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1041 1039 1044 1044 1049 1081 1118 1181 1204 1215 1209 1187 1120 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.8 112.2 113.4 114.4 115.1 115.6 115.9 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 45 49 51 51 61 68 47 34 34 37 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 19. 28. 39. 45. 50. 54. 58. 63. 63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##