* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 50 59 66 70 75 80 83 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 50 59 66 70 75 80 83 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 43 51 61 73 86 96 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 13 14 17 14 12 8 6 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -6 -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 50 51 53 58 43 43 36 36 35 40 77 94 108 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 158 157 158 158 157 155 152 151 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 81 80 77 76 75 75 73 72 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 11 11 13 14 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 16 14 16 5 -6 -4 3 18 34 48 58 200 MB DIV 110 105 104 119 102 74 76 61 47 53 57 49 39 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -4 -6 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1018 1018 1024 1038 1053 1082 1141 1175 1194 1232 1254 1281 1279 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.2 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.6 108.4 109.2 110.0 111.6 113.0 114.2 115.3 116.2 116.9 117.6 118.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 49 52 52 55 69 53 34 36 40 40 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 25. 34. 41. 45. 50. 55. 58. 56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##