* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 57 63 68 73 78 80 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 57 63 68 73 78 80 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 45 54 65 77 87 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 19 22 17 14 12 5 5 3 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -3 -5 -7 -6 -2 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 49 31 27 33 33 37 13 7 356 353 42 50 40 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 160 160 158 159 158 157 153 150 144 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -52.5 -53.3 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 80 80 78 78 76 74 72 70 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 14 17 19 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 13 8 3 -6 -19 -22 -17 -9 -11 4 6 200 MB DIV 114 118 134 116 98 89 47 51 56 84 45 36 9 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -7 -11 -10 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1006 1000 1001 1012 1027 1044 1095 1116 1106 1096 1102 1105 1085 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.2 108.0 108.9 109.7 111.3 112.7 114.0 115.1 116.1 117.0 118.0 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 44 48 50 56 67 52 35 41 36 26 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 10. 13. 17. 19. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 32. 38. 43. 48. 53. 55. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##