* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 50 57 67 73 79 82 88 89 86 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 50 57 67 73 79 82 88 89 86 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 58 70 83 94 102 104 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 21 23 21 14 13 10 7 2 4 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -5 -5 0 -5 -3 -6 -1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 29 29 27 34 39 31 17 16 2 30 91 98 69 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.0 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 160 161 159 160 160 157 154 151 143 139 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 85 82 81 81 80 78 75 73 71 70 67 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 13 14 16 19 21 24 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 15 8 7 -2 -6 -5 0 7 22 42 46 200 MB DIV 130 138 124 113 106 85 58 48 58 75 37 30 3 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -12 -11 -9 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1007 989 976 982 984 1039 1118 1120 1108 1125 1161 1154 1146 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 7 6 6 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 49 55 56 61 56 35 41 37 28 17 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 21. 24. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 27. 37. 43. 49. 52. 58. 59. 56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##