* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 64 69 74 78 82 84 84 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 64 69 74 78 82 84 84 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 47 54 65 76 89 100 104 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 27 26 20 18 13 8 4 4 7 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -6 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 27 32 34 41 36 30 26 35 55 44 56 74 65 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 157 159 159 157 153 148 143 141 135 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -52.5 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 81 80 78 76 74 70 69 67 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 12 13 14 16 18 22 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 22 13 4 4 0 -17 -22 -18 -11 -9 6 11 26 200 MB DIV 148 138 115 107 104 74 66 47 72 28 34 5 9 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -9 -9 -7 -5 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1049 1052 1061 1065 1081 1127 1159 1171 1176 1191 1195 1214 1263 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 45 47 51 58 68 46 35 45 37 29 21 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 26. 34. 39. 44. 48. 52. 54. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##