* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 46 53 59 65 67 69 69 68 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 46 53 59 65 67 69 69 68 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 41 48 56 65 73 79 81 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 27 22 19 15 9 7 5 8 9 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -5 -2 0 -1 -5 -1 -4 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 34 36 41 38 39 26 24 354 15 30 30 9 52 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 158 158 158 157 153 149 145 143 139 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 81 81 78 77 77 73 72 71 68 68 66 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 15 3 2 -2 -9 -24 -26 -16 -16 -22 -26 -27 -7 200 MB DIV 122 99 75 77 69 39 33 55 63 21 17 -7 -9 700-850 TADV -11 -9 -7 -7 -7 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1084 1087 1101 1121 1150 1157 1201 1231 1239 1250 1250 1275 1341 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 54 64 68 42 36 44 40 32 27 22 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 16. 23. 29. 35. 37. 39. 39. 38. 34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/20/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##