* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 43 49 54 55 56 52 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 43 49 54 55 56 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 39 39 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 25 23 20 19 12 9 7 12 9 9 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 1 0 -2 0 0 3 3 4 4 SHEAR DIR 39 41 38 38 34 13 355 337 324 322 348 20 25 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 151 150 149 148 147 144 138 129 120 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 80 76 75 73 70 69 67 64 63 63 63 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 11 11 13 14 16 18 21 23 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -15 -22 -26 -29 -30 -29 -34 -33 -39 -40 -53 200 MB DIV 69 65 65 65 52 30 60 49 42 6 -12 0 -25 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 3 1 3 4 LAND (KM) 878 882 900 936 978 1007 1041 1041 1022 1040 1091 1138 1172 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.3 16.2 17.1 17.9 19.0 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.0 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.6 114.8 115.8 116.7 118.0 119.8 121.4 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 58 49 39 39 41 40 32 34 23 17 9 12 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 24. 29. 30. 31. 27. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##