* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 52 55 53 52 49 47 42 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 52 55 53 52 49 47 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 41 42 42 40 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 21 17 12 12 11 9 14 13 11 8 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 3 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 4 7 4 SHEAR DIR 37 36 31 27 16 1 6 324 340 344 4 334 54 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.6 26.8 25.8 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 148 146 144 143 144 143 139 131 121 116 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 72 69 68 68 64 64 63 61 61 55 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 16 16 18 18 19 18 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -14 -22 -28 -26 -27 -32 -35 -34 -33 -33 -35 -43 200 MB DIV 60 59 46 23 2 31 27 11 -7 3 -19 -19 -15 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 1 0 0 3 2 7 LAND (KM) 879 898 887 879 874 898 909 951 971 990 1043 1123 1276 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 28 23 20 17 12 9 4 6 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 6. 9. 9. 10. 9. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 22. 25. 23. 22. 19. 17. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##