* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 43 47 49 48 46 45 42 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 43 47 49 48 46 45 42 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 34 33 30 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 15 13 10 9 7 11 10 6 6 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 -2 0 0 1 -1 2 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 39 29 25 16 355 356 315 324 334 347 3 67 49 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 148 146 145 145 144 142 135 128 125 120 113 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 69 70 66 66 65 64 58 52 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 17 17 19 20 22 22 21 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -17 -20 -22 -25 -33 -33 -28 -31 -21 -26 -23 -32 200 MB DIV 69 65 49 35 32 61 23 16 -33 -16 -24 -6 -18 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 8 2 5 0 5 7 LAND (KM) 909 932 925 912 903 931 954 944 911 979 1173 1274 1348 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 31 28 24 30 26 13 5 2 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 17. 19. 18. 16. 15. 12. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##