* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 48 49 48 44 39 36 31 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 48 49 48 44 39 36 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 36 36 33 30 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 10 6 7 6 10 11 7 3 2 1 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 -1 1 1 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 43 50 43 16 2 14 335 331 328 353 63 189 11 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.0 25.3 25.0 24.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 143 143 142 140 133 123 116 113 108 100 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 69 67 66 65 61 59 53 51 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 16 17 19 20 21 20 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -8 -9 -17 -19 -19 -19 -13 -17 -29 -37 -37 200 MB DIV 58 47 42 32 37 46 15 -1 -19 -31 -27 -5 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 7 1 11 9 LAND (KM) 890 882 878 883 891 891 892 886 943 1035 1122 1249 1404 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 20 21 24 17 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 19. 18. 14. 9. 6. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##