* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 11 12 11 8 7 6 3 6 5 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 44 43 27 7 3 10 15 349 7 17 85 96 193 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 26.7 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 143 143 142 138 130 121 116 111 105 100 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 68 67 67 61 57 49 46 38 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 12 13 13 11 9 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -14 -16 -18 -23 -19 -18 -18 -15 -20 -28 -28 -20 200 MB DIV 41 25 20 30 50 8 0 -25 -18 -31 3 -5 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 -1 4 3 6 LAND (KM) 905 887 873 873 876 867 872 898 988 1074 1147 1282 1453 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 20 19 21 14 9 2 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -4. -10. -13. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##