* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 11 9 10 11 9 11 6 6 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 0 0 4 0 8 5 SHEAR DIR 21 3 360 357 348 347 334 348 354 32 36 105 154 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.7 25.6 24.8 24.4 24.1 23.6 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 142 140 136 130 118 110 106 103 97 92 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 66 68 65 63 56 51 45 41 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 9 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -21 -27 -23 -20 -25 -20 -24 -34 -42 -61 -46 -44 200 MB DIV 10 28 46 24 -3 -9 -16 -17 -28 -20 -14 -9 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 3 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 854 837 825 819 821 815 824 868 937 978 1041 1113 1197 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.7 23.6 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.1 114.5 115.1 115.6 116.7 117.9 119.3 120.8 122.3 123.7 125.1 126.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 13 12 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -24. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##