* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 07/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 33 33 29 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 33 29 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 32 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 11 12 9 11 10 10 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 3 1 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 359 358 349 344 360 345 357 39 24 26 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.7 25.7 24.4 23.7 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 139 137 130 120 106 98 94 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 70 67 64 62 56 53 49 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 9 8 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -35 -28 -22 -23 -27 -20 -44 -40 -50 -73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 41 28 10 5 -3 -12 -16 -12 -12 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 0 -2 2 1 0 7 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 810 777 749 722 705 654 678 751 808 843 861 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 4 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 9 6 6 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -11. -13. -15. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -4. -11. -20. -26. -32. -33. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 07/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##