* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 07/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 50 59 65 70 71 73 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 50 59 65 70 71 73 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 41 50 60 69 77 82 85 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 8 10 15 19 23 24 25 20 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 319 355 39 37 39 60 47 52 59 64 56 50 22 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 154 153 153 155 156 152 150 149 147 143 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 81 80 78 78 75 74 70 71 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 18 23 26 29 34 27 16 24 36 33 16 200 MB DIV 51 39 56 68 69 68 54 37 15 23 56 83 55 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2001 2095 2196 2287 2367 2487 2589 2670 2589 2465 2342 2200 2030 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.4 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 122.2 123.6 124.8 126.1 128.2 130.0 131.6 132.8 133.8 134.8 135.9 137.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 10 9 8 6 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 25 40 45 40 18 15 14 15 17 20 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 25. 34. 40. 45. 46. 48. 49. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 07/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 07/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##