* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 07/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 61 65 67 65 62 58 56 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 61 65 67 65 62 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 56 59 60 58 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 7 10 11 11 9 9 9 18 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -4 -3 -2 -5 -3 -4 -2 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 332 338 346 327 322 338 331 343 337 307 310 312 307 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.1 26.0 25.5 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 151 150 149 144 145 144 136 125 119 120 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 73 74 72 69 65 59 56 53 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -7 -2 -4 -11 -3 7 20 35 18 1 -3 200 MB DIV 58 40 32 37 31 37 19 13 29 22 14 -9 -21 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 1 2 4 8 12 LAND (KM) 1555 1593 1647 1681 1726 1828 1937 2052 2217 2035 1748 1467 1225 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.7 121.2 122.5 123.7 126.1 128.3 130.5 133.0 135.6 138.2 140.8 143.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 15 13 13 12 11 12 12 13 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 51 34 21 14 14 24 17 19 11 5 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 31. 35. 37. 35. 32. 28. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 07/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 07/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##