* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 07/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 45 48 48 42 33 26 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 45 48 48 42 33 26 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 34 34 34 32 28 23 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 17 16 15 14 13 18 26 40 39 45 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 0 -4 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 319 305 294 311 319 323 322 300 293 306 299 312 315 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.3 26.9 25.9 24.8 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 143 139 138 134 123 111 105 102 100 98 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.5 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 67 65 64 58 58 55 51 51 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -16 -20 -21 -21 -22 1 10 4 -17 -25 -39 -39 200 MB DIV 23 31 27 17 10 9 9 12 9 -3 -13 -15 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 5 4 6 9 9 4 -2 LAND (KM) 1519 1548 1591 1639 1697 1780 1892 2046 2103 1935 1838 1806 1879 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.8 19.8 20.9 21.9 22.6 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.9 123.2 124.5 125.7 127.9 130.2 132.5 134.7 136.3 137.3 137.7 137.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 23 22 14 11 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -13. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 18. 18. 12. 3. -4. -10. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 07/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 07/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##