* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 07/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 41 39 33 24 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 41 39 33 24 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 32 30 26 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 19 17 14 15 13 22 32 37 35 31 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 0 4 2 1 SHEAR DIR 314 305 318 328 324 334 318 308 313 310 289 292 280 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.4 26.6 25.9 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 149 146 143 141 138 130 122 112 108 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -55.6 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 67 64 57 55 52 50 44 45 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -28 -27 -30 -26 -26 -1 -15 -20 -45 -37 -47 -23 200 MB DIV 20 23 13 0 -8 9 3 -6 -16 -10 -11 0 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 4 4 8 8 6 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 1550 1584 1630 1672 1711 1772 1863 1975 2061 2047 2001 1893 1691 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.5 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 123.0 124.2 125.3 126.3 128.2 130.1 132.1 133.9 135.1 135.6 135.2 133.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 9 6 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 22 15 8 14 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -10. -14. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 9. 3. -6. -12. -18. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 07/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 07/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##