* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 07/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 46 45 39 31 23 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 46 45 39 31 23 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 36 34 30 25 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 16 13 14 12 16 21 28 34 44 44 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 0 -1 3 6 6 2 SHEAR DIR 307 322 331 333 329 335 316 329 321 307 318 315 308 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.5 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 145 146 144 139 129 123 120 116 113 111 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 64 60 57 52 49 49 52 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -18 -18 -12 -13 -3 5 -5 -24 -25 -19 -26 -39 200 MB DIV 15 5 -1 -4 -2 18 7 7 -13 -13 -11 -36 -41 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 1 5 10 10 13 10 7 LAND (KM) 1652 1718 1792 1833 1880 2011 2174 2032 1793 1590 1457 1391 1389 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.1 20.9 21.5 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.3 126.5 127.6 128.6 130.8 133.1 135.5 137.7 139.6 140.9 141.6 141.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 14 12 15 20 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 16. 15. 9. 1. -7. -14. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 07/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 07/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##