* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 07/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 31 35 43 49 54 57 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 31 35 43 49 54 57 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 25 29 34 39 41 42 44 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 2 5 7 11 15 17 17 18 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -2 0 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 115 123 89 59 359 331 303 317 338 317 308 312 335 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 156 157 154 154 156 157 159 157 148 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 80 78 77 73 73 69 66 66 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 9 8 9 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -31 -20 -14 -6 0 10 10 -2 -18 -28 -8 2 200 MB DIV 96 94 94 85 59 46 30 48 72 58 35 31 11 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 4 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1545 1621 1697 1745 1800 1920 2066 2201 2364 2527 2196 1853 1531 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.9 13.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.5 116.6 117.8 119.0 121.5 124.1 126.8 129.6 132.4 135.4 138.4 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 12 12 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 63 64 50 40 32 35 30 33 24 34 29 15 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 7. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 23. 29. 34. 37. 35. 37. 39. 41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 07/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##