* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082015 07/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 37 37 36 34 30 26 25 26 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 37 37 36 34 30 26 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 30 29 27 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 14 16 14 13 12 10 13 21 16 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 3 1 3 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 333 338 334 341 347 342 352 324 302 309 301 282 262 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 147 145 140 134 129 129 130 132 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 60 59 57 54 53 50 48 47 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -14 -11 -5 -6 -4 -15 -16 -2 4 9 42 56 200 MB DIV -12 -12 -16 -2 -4 5 -8 -5 -5 -36 -24 -20 4 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 2 5 4 7 7 7 6 LAND (KM) 1777 1837 1903 1978 2057 2208 2077 1799 1472 1144 853 562 314 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.6 128.8 130.0 131.1 133.2 135.2 137.8 140.9 144.0 146.8 149.6 152.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 14 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 17 19 22 15 5 4 1 7 8 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -5. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082015 EIGHT 07/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082015 EIGHT 07/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##