* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 07/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 37 45 51 57 58 56 58 59 59 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 37 45 51 57 58 56 58 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 32 38 43 45 47 51 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 3 5 7 9 16 17 17 19 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 116 116 82 15 353 305 305 342 342 324 311 319 311 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.6 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 157 157 157 153 156 156 157 159 152 143 138 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 78 77 73 71 69 66 66 69 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 8 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -17 -12 -1 1 14 23 18 3 -13 -10 -4 11 200 MB DIV 109 108 94 64 55 31 30 56 83 33 11 0 31 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 2 2 3 1 1 -1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1579 1659 1705 1753 1810 1949 2095 2252 2426 2370 2030 1718 1440 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.5 14.5 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.2 117.4 118.6 119.8 122.4 125.2 128.0 130.8 133.8 136.8 139.5 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 15 15 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 67 57 46 37 33 35 31 27 29 33 32 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 8. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 25. 31. 37. 38. 36. 38. 39. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 07/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##