* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 07/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 34 43 49 54 58 61 63 66 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 34 43 49 54 58 61 63 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 39 42 47 53 57 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 3 3 4 6 8 5 8 8 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 1 2 4 6 7 SHEAR DIR 92 90 68 32 347 328 281 336 4 345 310 351 296 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 154 153 153 155 157 160 158 153 148 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 79 78 75 74 68 67 67 72 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -9 0 6 14 27 34 27 19 15 24 35 51 200 MB DIV 109 90 65 69 61 38 45 84 82 46 30 53 50 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 2 2 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1749 1797 1848 1901 1960 2117 2238 2377 2555 2251 1897 1531 1226 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.1 12.9 14.0 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.9 119.0 120.2 121.3 123.9 126.5 129.1 132.0 135.2 138.4 141.6 144.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 16 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 44 34 27 25 30 34 29 22 27 31 20 10 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 23. 29. 34. 38. 41. 43. 46. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 07/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##