* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082015 07/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 34 34 33 33 34 34 36 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 34 34 33 33 34 34 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 12 11 9 5 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 343 350 350 341 340 320 305 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.5 26.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 144 142 136 130 131 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 55 54 49 45 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -17 -12 0 -5 -16 -14 -9 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 3 0 -24 -15 -24 -22 -25 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1888 1965 2047 2128 2213 2051 1758 1467 1167 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 129.7 130.8 132.0 133.1 135.5 138.3 141.1 144.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 19 22 23 17 7 6 3 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082015 EIGHT 07/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082015 EIGHT 07/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##