* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 07/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 54 61 66 71 71 73 74 71 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 54 61 66 71 71 73 74 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 47 55 62 68 73 74 72 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 4 6 8 7 6 10 11 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -6 -5 -2 -2 0 2 4 4 5 3 SHEAR DIR 53 53 51 40 26 324 340 351 332 292 336 289 278 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.2 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 153 152 152 154 159 160 157 148 141 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 83 79 77 72 69 69 74 75 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 14 15 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 16 15 22 20 18 15 10 9 8 20 35 200 MB DIV 80 84 82 80 73 77 81 87 67 62 65 46 58 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 3 4 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1968 2006 2048 2089 2135 2238 2323 2440 2542 2189 1823 1495 1220 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.6 9.4 10.4 11.4 12.6 13.9 15.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.5 120.5 121.6 122.6 124.8 127.1 129.7 132.6 135.6 138.7 141.4 143.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 12 13 15 15 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 18 27 41 36 20 29 27 13 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 29. 36. 41. 46. 46. 48. 49. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 07/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##