* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 07/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 40 46 55 63 69 73 73 74 73 71 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 40 46 55 63 69 73 73 74 73 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 49 58 67 73 77 77 72 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 3 4 8 8 5 7 9 8 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 0 3 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 48 47 53 46 19 340 341 347 297 306 276 295 267 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.2 28.7 27.8 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 152 152 156 160 159 154 144 137 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 82 80 77 72 73 73 77 78 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 17 18 20 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 16 21 23 14 7 5 1 -1 8 9 29 200 MB DIV 93 101 97 95 107 103 111 101 82 65 74 74 66 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 -2 -1 0 3 1 2 3 7 LAND (KM) 2031 2071 2115 2158 2205 2303 2395 2530 2394 2031 1677 1348 1100 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.6 9.5 10.5 11.8 13.0 14.5 16.0 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.7 121.6 122.6 123.6 125.8 128.2 130.9 133.9 137.0 139.9 142.6 144.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 15 16 16 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 25 39 39 24 21 30 32 10 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 18. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 21. 30. 38. 44. 48. 48. 49. 48. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##