* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 07/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 40 45 54 62 69 72 72 71 69 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 40 45 54 62 69 72 72 71 69 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 42 51 59 65 68 66 60 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 10 3 6 10 12 12 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 -2 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 51 59 58 48 2 341 347 318 280 297 276 276 266 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.0 27.9 27.0 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 151 152 155 158 159 157 145 135 129 124 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 84 84 82 82 78 72 70 71 75 75 79 78 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 15 17 19 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 23 25 25 10 2 -2 -6 -14 -5 -1 17 200 MB DIV 114 108 104 126 113 102 100 86 61 69 72 84 51 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 4 3 1 5 9 10 LAND (KM) 2078 2121 2168 2206 2239 2321 2417 2534 2187 1849 1549 1321 1185 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.6 10.7 11.8 13.1 14.5 16.1 17.7 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.3 123.2 124.2 125.1 127.3 129.7 132.5 135.4 138.2 140.6 142.4 143.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 12 14 15 15 15 13 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 23 35 42 38 35 20 32 24 14 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 20. 29. 37. 44. 47. 47. 46. 44. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##