* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 07/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 37 38 39 41 43 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 37 38 39 41 43 45 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 28 28 28 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 14 14 11 13 16 11 9 9 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 6 7 11 15 13 11 13 9 4 1 SHEAR DIR 71 82 94 104 119 155 143 173 181 159 135 160 155 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.1 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 139 135 134 129 116 112 113 117 122 128 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 139 135 134 128 113 108 109 112 119 127 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 70 69 67 62 60 55 55 50 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 43 44 45 55 74 77 58 57 36 27 17 200 MB DIV -50 -24 -7 16 38 73 42 46 16 13 -9 -37 -50 700-850 TADV -5 2 4 7 8 6 10 7 6 7 4 5 0 LAND (KM) 446 564 662 787 917 1208 1503 1770 1953 1744 1511 1284 1049 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.4 12.8 11.8 10.9 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 20.9 22.0 23.2 24.5 25.8 28.6 31.4 33.9 36.1 38.0 39.9 41.8 44.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 8 5 5 4 5 0 1 5 13 10 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 21. 23. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 07/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 07/29/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED