* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 07/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 46 56 64 70 72 69 66 63 60 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 46 56 64 70 72 69 66 63 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 57 62 61 56 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 8 9 9 5 8 13 12 16 15 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -4 -3 2 2 2 3 4 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 46 42 29 350 341 353 328 300 293 282 293 263 267 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.5 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 152 152 157 160 159 152 139 131 126 120 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 79 76 71 72 74 77 78 79 78 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 16 17 19 20 21 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 10 19 25 25 13 6 0 -1 -10 -6 -1 20 19 200 MB DIV 111 103 121 125 116 113 90 92 56 65 62 57 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 3 9 7 11 16 14 9 LAND (KM) 2154 2195 2240 2280 2314 2387 2492 2392 2028 1694 1428 1273 1193 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.7 10.9 12.3 13.8 15.4 17.1 18.7 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.2 124.1 125.1 126.1 128.3 130.8 133.7 136.7 139.4 141.5 142.7 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 13 15 16 16 15 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 32 43 44 41 23 23 33 32 5 3 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 31. 39. 45. 47. 44. 41. 38. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##