* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 07/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 36 38 40 42 44 48 50 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 36 38 40 42 44 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 14 14 11 13 14 12 15 12 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 4 4 6 13 12 9 11 6 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 66 81 91 101 124 142 147 160 142 150 146 146 148 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 26.8 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 135 134 123 112 112 114 118 122 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 135 134 133 122 108 107 109 113 118 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 70 69 69 65 62 61 57 56 51 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 55 50 43 49 48 66 71 75 65 62 60 39 24 200 MB DIV -41 -22 -1 41 73 60 40 28 -4 23 -26 -56 -45 700-850 TADV -7 0 3 3 8 10 4 9 10 9 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 627 725 828 951 1078 1359 1621 1838 1917 1732 1555 1376 1240 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.3 11.5 10.8 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 22.6 23.7 24.8 26.0 27.3 30.0 32.5 34.5 36.3 37.8 39.2 40.7 42.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 13 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 5 7 7 3 0 1 3 10 17 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 28. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 07/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 07/29/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)