* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 07/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 51 62 71 76 77 74 71 69 66 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 51 62 71 76 77 74 71 69 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 42 46 56 67 75 76 72 65 58 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 9 11 8 9 7 8 10 13 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -3 -1 1 4 11 12 10 5 8 3 SHEAR DIR 32 30 352 353 357 17 347 335 320 329 324 322 340 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 157 160 159 154 151 144 140 137 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 75 70 69 71 74 74 72 69 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 15 16 19 20 21 20 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 23 17 13 10 10 10 9 23 20 32 32 200 MB DIV 110 118 114 114 117 93 68 72 77 36 37 23 33 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -6 -1 6 5 5 7 5 10 7 LAND (KM) 2208 2257 2296 2349 2410 2555 2353 1990 1653 1376 1192 1038 910 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 16 16 16 14 10 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 45 42 39 21 21 30 32 12 14 14 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 21. 32. 41. 46. 47. 44. 41. 39. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##