* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 07/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 29 34 39 43 47 54 60 67 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 29 34 39 43 47 54 60 67 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 30 32 35 40 46 56 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 12 11 9 10 8 8 7 4 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 2 8 13 11 10 7 0 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 73 67 75 94 128 128 136 121 118 90 76 16 229 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 26.4 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 135 134 130 118 111 111 113 115 116 114 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 134 133 128 115 106 105 106 108 109 110 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 67 66 61 62 58 60 53 51 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 56 52 50 46 54 71 90 82 84 95 96 80 71 200 MB DIV -12 14 45 62 67 64 56 6 25 20 -1 -26 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 1 1 -3 2 2 0 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 725 833 946 1072 1201 1463 1687 1861 1947 1844 1771 1706 1694 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.3 12.8 12.3 12.5 13.3 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 23.7 24.9 26.0 27.3 28.5 31.0 33.1 34.7 35.8 36.6 37.5 38.8 40.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 11 9 6 5 4 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 7 7 5 1 0 2 7 10 7 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 34. 40. 47. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 07/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 07/30/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED