* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP092015 07/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 51 62 69 71 71 69 66 62 62 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 51 62 69 71 71 69 66 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 46 57 67 71 69 65 61 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 12 11 10 9 10 8 12 6 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 1 5 5 6 6 5 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 24 359 353 357 6 359 325 306 308 315 330 309 310 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 157 159 160 157 152 149 144 138 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 81 79 75 70 69 70 73 76 76 74 72 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 17 19 21 21 21 21 20 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 17 14 9 4 3 2 0 4 21 29 40 200 MB DIV 148 133 125 117 107 80 78 62 71 35 35 24 55 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -5 -6 -4 1 10 10 10 10 12 11 8 LAND (KM) 2284 2314 2349 2398 2456 2545 2171 1843 1575 1342 1139 1001 925 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 13 11 10 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 42 39 22 18 31 33 18 11 14 12 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 32. 39. 41. 41. 39. 36. 32. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 INVEST 07/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 INVEST 07/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##