* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 07/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 32 34 36 40 43 48 54 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 28 32 34 36 40 43 48 54 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 26 27 28 29 31 35 40 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 9 11 10 10 11 12 7 8 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 8 10 14 14 11 8 5 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 52 62 90 116 128 156 161 146 154 119 116 111 159 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 132 129 123 112 111 112 117 120 123 123 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 131 127 120 108 105 106 111 115 117 118 114 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 65 64 61 60 56 56 50 49 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 41 43 47 71 66 66 71 60 50 38 38 200 MB DIV 7 40 56 61 51 49 35 7 52 -13 -56 -41 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 6 1 5 8 9 2 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 852 967 1086 1215 1345 1598 1825 1957 1784 1635 1491 1408 1391 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.6 13.3 12.4 11.6 11.2 11.7 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.2 27.4 28.6 29.9 32.3 34.4 36.0 37.3 38.4 39.7 41.0 42.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 6 4 2 0 0 2 9 18 14 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 20. 23. 28. 34. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 07/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 07/30/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED