* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 60 66 66 65 64 63 59 59 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 60 66 66 65 64 63 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 50 58 64 65 63 58 54 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 13 10 8 10 11 7 11 8 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 2 5 6 4 9 5 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 8 1 7 8 4 357 314 321 322 323 308 298 269 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 158 160 161 159 154 151 148 143 137 132 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 79 75 70 69 70 71 74 74 77 76 74 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 19 21 22 22 21 21 21 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 14 8 5 6 9 1 4 17 33 23 34 200 MB DIV 152 135 123 106 97 78 84 64 53 18 22 37 38 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -7 -6 -3 6 12 10 9 10 9 9 8 LAND (KM) 2323 2378 2442 2510 2586 2353 1980 1692 1478 1264 1034 925 896 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.3 11.4 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.7 16.1 17.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.7 127.2 128.6 130.0 131.4 134.5 137.8 140.4 142.3 144.0 145.7 146.4 146.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 16 15 12 10 10 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 38 20 18 20 28 31 14 13 16 9 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 9. 7. 8. 8. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 31. 31. 30. 29. 28. 24. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##