* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 07/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 44 47 52 57 62 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 44 47 52 57 62 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 40 44 49 56 65 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 11 10 9 8 12 8 9 6 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 5 8 13 11 7 4 2 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 45 64 76 93 113 148 131 136 116 101 78 134 149 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 131 125 119 113 112 116 120 123 125 124 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 129 123 116 108 107 110 115 118 120 120 113 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 68 65 62 60 60 55 52 49 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 41 38 45 53 64 55 70 62 61 47 38 31 200 MB DIV 45 58 64 64 58 50 21 73 23 -26 -61 -30 1 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -1 0 -4 -1 1 0 -3 -2 2 6 LAND (KM) 1052 1158 1267 1390 1514 1732 1938 1833 1660 1498 1373 1308 1341 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.2 12.6 11.7 11.0 10.9 11.6 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 27.9 29.0 30.2 31.4 33.5 35.4 36.9 38.2 39.5 40.8 42.1 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 4 3 1 2 5 16 15 11 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 22. 27. 32. 37. 41. 43. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 07/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 07/30/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED