* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 07/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 41 44 50 56 60 64 68 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 41 44 50 56 60 64 68 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 46 52 58 66 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 14 13 11 8 10 9 10 8 5 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 4 5 12 9 9 6 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 47 76 93 96 110 150 131 130 117 116 90 107 157 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 127 121 117 113 114 117 120 123 121 117 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 130 125 118 113 108 108 112 115 117 117 112 109 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 67 66 65 62 61 55 54 49 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 42 48 49 49 53 68 67 70 60 52 34 200 MB DIV 48 57 55 46 42 49 41 83 12 -5 -28 -11 -3 700-850 TADV -7 0 2 -4 -5 0 3 7 3 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1204 1312 1423 1534 1646 1855 1906 1750 1604 1476 1402 1372 1366 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.0 12.9 12.3 11.7 11.4 12.1 13.2 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 28.2 29.3 30.4 31.5 32.6 34.6 36.3 37.6 38.8 40.0 41.4 42.9 44.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 9 5 3 3 4 9 16 13 6 1 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 22. 25. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 43. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 07/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 07/30/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)