* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 55 59 61 60 58 54 51 50 47 46 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 55 59 61 60 58 54 51 50 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 58 61 64 63 57 50 44 39 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 7 8 10 13 11 7 14 11 14 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 6 5 2 3 8 2 1 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 350 342 325 317 302 282 270 249 271 267 284 263 264 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 160 160 159 154 150 145 140 137 136 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 70 72 74 75 80 80 79 75 75 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 19 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -1 -5 -10 -5 -1 -7 3 9 25 26 22 30 200 MB DIV 121 92 94 96 87 68 69 76 56 35 25 41 55 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 3 10 15 12 11 13 10 10 7 7 LAND (KM) 2358 2424 2497 2579 2418 2074 1780 1527 1334 1161 1021 864 697 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.5 13.3 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.4 17.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 127.7 129.1 130.5 132.1 133.7 136.8 139.4 141.5 143.1 144.5 145.7 146.9 148.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 16 14 13 10 8 7 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 23 24 34 35 35 13 12 16 14 10 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 14. 16. 15. 13. 9. 6. 5. 2. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##