* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 07/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 41 46 51 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 41 46 51 55 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 37 43 50 57 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 7 10 10 10 3 5 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 7 11 15 10 6 2 4 2 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 75 88 100 116 152 157 130 120 131 97 166 197 215 SST (C) 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 126 120 117 114 111 114 117 119 119 117 112 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 123 116 112 109 105 107 110 112 113 112 106 105 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 66 66 62 61 51 49 46 47 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 38 40 39 42 39 53 68 81 70 67 48 43 200 MB DIV 50 49 35 32 36 43 57 21 9 -51 -12 -9 -10 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 -2 -1 4 7 4 0 1 5 6 5 LAND (KM) 1350 1452 1556 1652 1749 1928 1885 1748 1641 1568 1533 1513 1505 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.7 12.0 13.0 14.2 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 29.6 30.6 31.7 32.6 33.6 35.3 36.4 37.5 38.4 39.4 40.6 42.1 43.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 5 6 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 5 3 2 2 5 10 16 14 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 16. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 07/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 07/31/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)