* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 69 70 67 63 57 54 50 45 44 44 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 69 70 67 63 57 54 50 45 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 68 72 74 71 65 59 53 48 45 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 10 11 16 12 9 10 13 15 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 5 7 6 6 6 2 -2 -6 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 321 322 303 273 262 285 280 268 268 272 258 243 238 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 159 158 152 147 142 137 135 132 132 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 68 70 72 76 78 78 77 75 74 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 23 22 21 21 20 21 21 20 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -12 -7 -3 -9 -9 0 15 24 34 26 29 200 MB DIV 101 97 102 95 95 50 51 51 47 24 39 59 92 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 9 13 15 11 13 11 8 5 5 8 LAND (KM) 2346 2430 2519 2474 2292 1977 1703 1480 1283 1108 976 819 657 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 128.5 130.0 131.5 133.1 134.7 137.5 139.9 141.8 143.4 144.8 145.9 147.2 148.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 16 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 34 39 31 30 10 12 16 13 9 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 15. 12. 8. 2. -1. -5. -10. -11. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 38% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##