* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 07/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 43 50 55 60 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 43 50 55 60 63 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 34 39 47 55 64 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 9 8 5 3 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 10 12 12 9 5 0 0 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 91 91 107 139 148 144 116 98 107 123 139 168 211 SST (C) 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.3 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 118 115 113 112 113 115 118 121 121 116 113 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 115 111 108 107 107 109 112 115 115 110 106 105 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 63 63 58 57 50 50 48 51 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 43 44 38 41 53 67 69 68 55 39 23 200 MB DIV 48 26 22 32 45 42 82 27 -15 -35 -6 -14 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 -1 1 6 3 0 0 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 1461 1571 1683 1788 1893 1902 1747 1601 1478 1417 1409 1432 1427 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.3 12.7 12.1 11.7 12.2 13.3 14.6 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 30.8 31.9 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.6 37.9 39.1 40.2 41.3 42.5 43.8 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 3 2 1 1 1 5 14 11 5 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 25. 30. 35. 38. 39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 07/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 07/31/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED