* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 82 86 85 79 73 70 64 59 55 52 50 V (KT) LAND 70 78 82 86 85 79 73 70 64 59 55 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 70 81 89 93 94 88 80 71 64 58 54 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 13 15 15 11 7 5 10 11 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 6 6 4 7 9 7 0 -4 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 332 293 289 271 273 292 294 303 257 280 257 252 244 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 156 149 143 140 137 136 135 134 133 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 68 67 69 70 74 74 72 69 68 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 23 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -6 -8 -4 -6 3 11 33 41 47 43 47 200 MB DIV 102 100 97 91 65 47 47 48 30 25 30 50 44 700-850 TADV 0 4 7 13 15 16 12 10 6 3 3 3 7 LAND (KM) 2411 2495 2500 2320 2140 1840 1602 1379 1181 1011 866 686 483 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.6 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 129.9 131.4 132.8 134.4 136.0 138.7 140.7 142.6 144.3 145.8 147.1 148.6 150.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 15 12 10 10 8 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 35 39 32 33 15 9 14 14 10 10 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 16. 15. 9. 3. 0. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 51% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 43% is 10.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##