* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 90 91 89 82 77 70 63 55 49 46 44 V (KT) LAND 80 87 90 91 89 82 77 70 63 55 49 46 44 V (KT) LGE mod 80 89 94 95 93 85 76 68 62 57 51 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 13 16 9 8 4 8 12 18 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 4 4 8 9 12 6 0 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 294 293 272 267 279 288 319 303 278 278 287 284 268 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 154 151 146 141 138 136 134 134 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 67 67 72 73 72 70 67 68 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 23 22 22 22 23 22 22 20 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -12 -14 -8 -11 4 10 26 32 33 37 40 49 200 MB DIV 65 75 73 70 42 52 47 36 23 18 31 48 20 700-850 TADV 5 9 14 12 14 13 11 11 11 9 5 7 8 LAND (KM) 2489 2416 2260 2102 1944 1674 1431 1233 1069 930 795 596 346 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 132.0 133.4 134.8 136.3 137.7 140.1 142.2 143.9 145.3 146.5 147.7 149.5 151.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 10 8 7 6 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 28 33 29 16 14 11 9 10 14 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 11. 9. 2. -3. -10. -17. -25. -31. -34. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##