* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 07/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 36 41 47 52 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 36 41 47 52 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 30 33 40 47 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 9 7 6 8 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 9 10 11 11 8 3 3 4 5 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 102 132 147 144 157 161 121 120 108 109 133 193 214 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 114 114 113 115 118 122 123 120 117 116 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 110 109 108 110 113 118 118 114 110 108 108 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 61 60 57 51 50 45 48 49 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 23 24 30 37 37 45 46 47 40 35 14 200 MB DIV 5 9 28 35 42 77 15 -31 -48 -9 2 5 -18 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 -3 0 6 4 -2 -1 3 4 4 2 LAND (KM) 1799 1911 1933 1853 1778 1604 1422 1245 1126 1084 1097 1106 1099 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.3 12.8 12.2 12.1 12.7 13.6 14.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.1 36.2 37.2 38.2 40.0 41.8 43.5 45.1 46.5 47.6 48.6 49.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 5 1 1 3 4 7 11 12 9 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 22. 27. 30. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 07/31/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 07/31/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED