* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 98 98 95 85 78 72 66 62 54 49 46 V (KT) LAND 90 96 98 98 95 85 78 72 66 62 54 49 46 V (KT) LGE mod 90 97 99 98 95 86 79 74 71 68 65 61 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 12 18 12 13 7 8 13 13 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 11 7 6 5 2 6 2 -1 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 323 291 283 289 292 307 331 312 282 287 304 280 263 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 152 150 148 144 140 138 136 134 134 135 136 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 67 69 71 71 71 67 64 57 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 22 23 21 21 21 20 22 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -7 -5 -9 -6 6 13 32 32 53 49 58 54 200 MB DIV 60 67 65 39 37 25 32 -1 14 19 8 -16 13 700-850 TADV 6 11 10 10 10 9 7 10 6 5 5 4 2 LAND (KM) 2353 2193 2032 1880 1727 1469 1260 1086 928 755 577 380 160 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.5 136.9 138.3 139.7 142.0 143.8 145.3 146.6 148.1 149.7 151.5 153.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 14 13 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 33 23 17 15 13 10 10 16 21 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -14. -19. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 8. 5. -5. -12. -18. -24. -28. -36. -41. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/31/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##